The nationwide rollout of ERTMS in the Netherlands is proceeding too slowly, with the current pace risking a full transition only between 2060 and 2070, far beyond the original 2056 target. Now, the first steps towards a new approach to accelerate the rollout are proposed.
The Dutch ERTMS Programme Directorate describes the Dutch ERTMS rollout as ‘a major challenge for the coming decades’, and a challenge that has grown in its strategic analysis published on 9 April. It had become clear to the Directorate last year that the Netherlands is facing a “major challenge” regarding train safety, which poses a “threat to the continuity of the rail system” and was leading to rising costs for maintaining outdated systems.
To rise to this challenge, the Directorate is proposing a new approach, including an accelerated national rollout by 2040 and a shift from sequential to parallel installation across multiple regions. The ‘exploratory analysis’ examines the urgency and the possibilities for accelerating the roll-out of the ERTMS programme. The ERTMS Programme Directorate is an independent body within the rail sector that reports to the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management with input from all involved stakeholders.
End of lifespan
The analysis points out three main reasons for the increasingly challenging ERTMS rollout. First of all, the Netherlands’ current ATB safety systems will reach the end of their lifespan between 2030 and 2040. Continuing to rely on them could force the rail sector into higher costs and reduced reliability, as knowledge of these systems declines and critical components become harder to source. Second, the GSM-R (2G) network has to be replaced by FRMCS (5G), but specifications for the new system are not expected until 2029. This situation adds further delays, as the transition requires extensive adjustments to both rolling stock and infrastructure.
Thirdly, the report highlights that the current working method, installing ERTMS in sequential tranches, is too slow and expensive. The first tranche, which began on the Northern lines, Zeeland line, and Kijfhoek-Belgian border section, has already delayed projects originally planned for the Hanzelijn, Schiphol-Amsterdam-Almere-Lelystad railway corridor (SAAL), Brabant route, and Utrecht-Meteren.
A new strategy
To meet the challenge, the ERTMS Programme Directorate is pushing for a more ambitious timeline: a nationwide ERTMS rollout by 2040, requiring significant acceleration from 2030 onwards. The proposed solution is to install ERTMS in parallel across multiple regions, rather than one track section at a time, whenever an opportunity arises.
Whether this approach is feasible depends on several factors. For example, there needs to be greater clarity first regarding ProRail’s capacity and the availability of resources and staff. Furthermore, an accelerated rollout would require politicians to reallocate funds that were originally earmarked for it after 2040. The ERTMS Programme Directorate estimates that around €5 billion of funding would already be needed in the period prior to that, as the work would then be carried out at an earlier stage.
Budget tensions
The 24th ERTMS Progress Report of the Directorate concludes that while the first phase of ERTMS rollout, Tranche 1, is advancing, complex technical challenges remain. These include delays in the Central Safety System (CSS) caused by new EU specifications.
Tranche 1 consists of the Northern lines, the Zeeland line, and the Kijfhoek-Belgian border section and involves converting 419 kilometres of track to ERTMS, upgrading approximately 1,150 trains and locomotives, and training around 12,000 railway professionals.
The estimated cost for this first phase is €3.8 billion, against a €3.6 billion budget. This creates a €219 million budget tension (a €56 million increase compared to the previous progress report of October 2025), primarily attributed to insufficient price indexation. Additionally, there is a further financial risk profile of at least €105 million, attributed to cost developments of the CSS and the most recent insights on the planning.
Next steps
The Dutch State Secretary for Infrastructure, Annet Bertram, will review the findings of the Programme Directorate and respond in the autumn of 2026. Meanwhile, the Directorate is refining its proposal for Tranche 2, which will focus on upgrading the outdated ERTMS systems on the HSL-Zuid, the high-speed line connecting Amsterdam and Rotterdam to Brussels and beyond. This upgrade is intended to be finalised before the current management contract, held by Infraspeed BV, expires on March 31, 2031, after which the Dutch state intends to transfer management to infrastructure manager ProRail.
The existing ERTMS sections in the Netherlands, on the HSL-Zuid, Betuweroute, Amsterdam-Utrecht, and Hanzelijn are equipped with ERTMS Baseline 2 and do not align with the newer systems being installed. These sections will also need upgrades or replacements between 2030 and 2040. Unlike Tranches 1 and 2, Tranche 3 will not be an execution phase for specific rail lines but rather a simultaneous preparatory phase to establish the groundwork and preconditions needed for the accelerated national rollout towards the 2040 ambition.
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