As ambitious railway programmes take shape across the Middle East, there is a growing need to appreciate the importance of strategic planning, which shapes performance, ensure resilience and delivers long-term value.
Railway megaprojects succeed or fail long before the tracks are laid or the trains begin to run. And nowhere is this more evident today than in the Middle East.
Across the region, governments are investing in some of the world’s most ambitious and challenging railway development programmes, driven by rapid urbanisation, large-scale economic diversification and long-term national visions. These schemes are being developed at pace, often in parallel with entirely new cities, logistics corridors and industrial zones, and all within a wider context of connecting up the member countries represented in the Gulf Co-operation Council.
This underlines the importance of getting the early planning right. It is in the early planning stages where complexity must be addressed — or ignored — as the decisions taken during early stages will determine whether the infrastructure:
- is fit for its intended purpose;
- can be delivered on time and within budget;
- meets the highest safety and quality standards; and
- delivers a return on the capital employed.
The implications of getting this right are profound, not just for the project leadership but also for the programme sponsors.
Railway development programmes bring together multiple stakeholders, and they often have long delivery horizons. Together these can create significant political, financial and operational risk. Without a robust early framework, projects can be vulnerable to delay, uncontrolled expansion of scope requirements, budget over-runs and a loss of stakeholder confidence. With firm foundations, they are far better positioned to adapt, integrate and perform.
Meanwhile, digital transformation and artificial intelligence are reshaping what effective planning looks like. The availability of data, analytical capability and predictive tools enables planners to test assumptions, understand behaviours and explore scenarios to a far greater depth than was previously possible. Used well, these tools can help to build resilience into rail investment schemes to the benefit of the cities and economies they are intended to serve. And perhaps nowhere is this more important than in regions such as the Middle East, where scale, speed and complexity converge.
Early planning still matters
Railway infrastructure is inherently inflexible. Once the corridors have been fixed, the assets specified and the interfaces defined, the opportunities for meaningful change diminish rapidly. Changes or adjustments made late in the planning–design–delivery sequence are generally expensive, disruptive and politically difficult, potentially eroding public support and damaging the overall viability of a scheme.
Among the most high profile rail projects in the Middle East in recent years was the Makkah – Madinah high speed line in Saudi Arabia, which is run by a Spanish-led consortium on behalf of local operator SAR.
This is why early planning must be both objective and innovative. At its core should be a deep understanding of the inter-relationship between land use and transport — a principle that remains central to the successful planning of rail investment schemes worldwide. Aligning infrastructure with economic development, urban design and social objectives is not an optional extra; it is fundamental to long-term performance.
Robust early planning also creates the conditions for resilience. Data-driven analysis, transparent decision-making and early stakeholder engagement help projects start on the right footing and remain there as pressures inevitably emerge. Experience shows that where early planning is weak, later phases of a project are forced into reactive mode, narrowing the choices and amplifying risk.
Jacobs has applied these principles across diverse global contexts, for example on High Speed 1 in the UK and also working with various clients in the Middle East to support transport infrastructure planning. The aspiration should not simply be to develop a transport plan, but a coherent long-term framework that supports future growth for the region.
Data underpins planning
Given that many of the new railways being planned in the Middle East are being developed alongside emerging cities, ports and industrial zones, it is fundamentally important to understand both the current conditions and future trajectories. Accurate, well-integrated data is essential to ensuring that the rail investments align with long-term objectives rather than responding retrospectively to growth that has already taken place. This relates to both the quality of the data used and the analytical methodologies. As the availability of data expands, artificial intelligence is increasingly being deployed to process larger volumes and support forecasting.
Jacobs was an early adopter of using aggregated, anonymised mobile phone data to investigate travel demand, initially working in collaboration with Telefónica and Transport for London to develop tailored processes aligned to the specific needs of the programme. This helped transform the accuracy and granularity of travel demand insights, complementing traditional sources such as surveys, fares and ticketing datasets and other publicly available information.
Today, the challenge is not simply access to data, but how effectively it is integrated and interpreted. AI tools can rapidly screen large, anonymised datasets to identify anomalies, reveal emerging trends or highlight the influence of specific attractors. They can also accelerate scenario testing, enabling decision-makers to explore options and trade-offs earlier in the planning cycle.
Technology does not replace expertise, it enhances it, enabling more informed decisions at a point in the project where changes are still affordable.
Governance can be overlooked
Another success factor that is often overlooked is project governance. Programmes as ambitious as those being pursued across the Middle East frequently span multiple authorities, jurisdictions and delivery partners, and often have ambitious timescales. In this context, it is critical to establish robust governance frameworks early, in order to maintain momentum, manage risk and sustain political and public confidence over long delivery horizons.
The Middle East region is seeing investment in rail projects across the spectrum, from metros such as this newly opened network in Riyadh, to heavy freight railways focused on bulk cargo flows.
Getting the governance right at the outset can save substantial time and effort later in project development and delivery. While governance frameworks will inevitably evolve over the project lifecycle, early clarity around roles, responsibilities and decision-making processes provides a strong foundation for success.
Strong governance, backed by a clear vision, helps navigate complexities. It creates continuity, builds confidence and provides a mechanism for resolving differences constructively. While not all stakeholders will agree on every issue, robust governance principles help to align their interests around shared goals and outcomes.
‘Whole journey’ mindset
Today, railways are increasingly expected to do more than simply move people and goods from A to B. They are central to wider ambitions around urban design, accessibility, sustainability and quality of life. As a result, integrated planning — linking rail with other public transport modes, active travel and land-use development — is becoming a defining characteristic of successful schemes.
Rather than planning in silos, disconnected from the wider transport system, integrated planning improves connectivity, supports mode shift and enhances the user experience from door to door. And this is particularly relevant to the Middle Eastern context of wider economic transformation.
Making the case for investment
Delivering major rail programmes requires alignment across a diverse and influential stakeholder landscape, both national and international, as the wider regional ambition is to connect all the GCC countries by rail. International bodies, national ministries and regional authorities, operators, developers and community interests all have a role to play, often within project governance structures that are still evolving. Early and structured engagement is essential to building durable support and maintaining delivery momentum.
Engaging the right stakeholders early and enabling them to participate meaningfully from the outset helps shape more deliverable schemes. It also builds momentum that extends beyond what any single promoter can achieve alone. Where the engagement is genuine, stakeholders become advocates rather than obstacles.
Early stakeholder engagement also smooths the planning and authorisation process, reducing the risk of having to rework the project and incur delays later in the programme. Identifying the stakeholder requirements at an early stage is a cornerstone of effective project development.
Defining requirements
Successful planning depends on a clear understanding of the long-term objectives, the options available and the associated commercial and financial implications.
Demand assessment — whether for passenger or freight services — provides the foundation. Demand drives operational planning, which in turn informs infrastructure development (Fig 1). Financial appraisal then tests the viability of different options, ensuring that the eventual investment decisions are grounded in robust evidence.
Fig 1. Key steps in the early planning process.
This structured approach enables engineering design to proceed on the basis of clearly defined requirements, reducing the risk of costly changes at a later stage.
Demand forecasting is not easy in a changing world. Countries across the Middle East must contend with rapid population growth, evolving travel behaviour and large-scale planned development. Nevertheless, there is growing recognition that future developments need to be considered in the planning process from the outset, as traditional trend-based forecasting would be insufficient in such dynamic contexts. While development trajectories are inherently uncertain, early engagement with planning authorities — and, in some cases, developers — can significantly improve forecast accuracy. This enhanced integration of transport and land-use planning is increasingly recognised as global best practice.
Wider societal trends also matter. Long-term planning work for London, for example, has examined the impacts of teleworking on travel demand. While the rapid growth of hybrid working could not have been predicted prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the effects have been substantial. Peak-time commuting has reduced, while off-peak ‘leisure’ travel has grown strongly.
Recognising and accommodating such dynamics is essential to credible long-term forecasting. Heavy rail is uniquely capable of moving very high passenger volumes in dense urban environments. Adjusting capacity to reflect changing demand patterns allows networks to respond more flexibly, improving utilisation across the operating day.
Transparency is equally important. Demand analysis must be clear and defensible, particularly where projects are subject to scrutiny during the scheme approval process. A transparent approach allows any assumption to be explained, challenged and refined as the schemes progress.
Bridging strategy and delivery
Operational planning translates the predicted demand into service patterns, fleet requirements, staffing, maintenance regimes and customer experience strategies. It bridges the gap between infrastructure development and day-to-day railway operation (Fig 2).
Fig 2. Key outputs from the Rail Operational Planning process.
Key components include timetable development, capacity management, crew and resource allocation, rolling stock planning, safety and risk control, and integration with other transport modes. Operational planning is not static; it requires continuous monitoring and adjustment.
Digital technologies are increasingly transforming these tasks, too. AI-driven scheduling tools, analytics and predictive maintenance systems are making operations more adaptive and resilient, enabling railways to respond more effectively to changing conditions.
Robust operational planning also informs infrastructure requirements, from track configuration and depot location to station sizing and freight facilities. These parameters in turn will underpin the capital and operating cost estimates forming the backbone of the financial and economic appraisal.
Financial and economic appraisal
The development of a business case helps to capture the costs and benefits of a rail project or programme, and also allows different scenarios to be tested, quantifying both capital and operating costs alongside wider economic impacts. But such processes require robust demand forecasting, detailed cost estimation and comprehensive benefit assessment.
As an example, the UK government’s transport appraisal framework is one of the most rigorous approaches to transport investment decision-making, and the WebTAG guidance sets out a five-case model to be followed.
Business cases typically evolve through a series of stages, from an initial outline case to a full business case prior to securing funding and permissions. Experience shows that strong early planning makes this progression smoother and more efficient, reducing uncertainty and strengthening confidence among decision-makers.
Procurement models
Procurement strategy should reflect the project scale, risk profile and delivery objectives. Three models have commonly been adopted across the Middle East: public-private partnerships, engineering-procurement-construction contracts and build-operate-transfer concessions.
Each model has advantages and challenges. PPPs can mobilise private capital and encourage innovation, but require complex negotiations and strong regulatory frameworks. EPC contracts offer clarity and speed but can leave government agencies bearing the financing and operational risk. BOT models shift operational responsibility to the private sector but depend on strong demand fundamentals.
Selecting the appropriate approach at an early stage can enable smoother delivery and clearer risk allocation at each stage of a project’s life cycle.
The value of early intervention
Ambitious timescales, complex approval processes and diverse security requirements can lead to accelerated delivery at the expense of thorough early planning. Experience shows that this is a false economy. Insufficient time spent upfront can result in lost opportunities, rework and costly late-stage value engineering. Optimising the project at an early stage delivers greater benefits with minimum disruption.
Engaging stakeholders early, understanding regulatory requirements and investing time in robust planning all help mitigate downstream risk. In complex rail programmes, the early decisions shape not only what is built, but how successfully it is delivered and operated.
For senior rail leaders and programme sponsors across the Middle East, early planning is not simply a phase — it is a strategic commitment. It is the point at which ambition is translated into reality, risks are confronted and value is created. In an increasingly complex and uncertain world, getting the early planning right has never mattered more.
*Vijay Borse is Railway Engineering Director and Stephen Pauling is Global Principal – Rail & Transit Planning at Jacobs.